Convoy Investments provides investment advisory and market research. It was founded in 2012 by ex-bridgewater employees.



Select Research Papers

While the Fed can control short-term or long-term interest rates, they cannot directly control inflation. They can only influence inflation by changing interest rates, which are already anchored at close to zero. So the Fed is largely helpless in stimulating the economy and the markets. It is now in an era where it must rely on Congress bills in order to enact expansionary monetary policy.
In September, the secured overnight borrowing rate spiked up to 10%. What can cause our banking system to run out of cash when it’s sitting on over $1.5 trillion of reserves, almost 40 times higher than any level before 2008?
What is risk? Ask financial experts this question and you may get standard deviations, VaR numbers, or other fancy statistics. But where does risk ultimately come from? Why do investments have risk at all? Why is stock risk something like 20% a year and not say 2% or 200%? Why do stocks have higher risks than bonds?
I believe there is slight upward pressure on inflation in the near term. In the long-term, the deflationary impact of technology and slowing global demographics present substantial downward pressure on inflation.
Like gold, Bitcoin serves the two goals of a hard currency, 1) a medium of exchange and 2) a storehold of wealth. Paradoxically, for Bitcoin to properly function as a hard currency, it needs to be a good storehold of wealth, but not too good. If its value goes up too rapidly as it did recently, the price of everything measured in terms of Bitcoins drops precipitously and we go into a deflationary spiral where people hold onto a currency for speculative reasons rather than using it as a medium of exchange.
When we see a dramatic rise in asset prices, there is often an internal struggle between the two types of investors within us. The first is the value investor, “is this investment getting too expensive?” The second is the momentum investor, “am I missing out on a trend?” I believe the balance of these two approaches, both within ourselves and across a market, ultimately determines the propensity for bubble-like behavior.
A passive investor bets on an asset’s long-term growth potential, an active investor bets on her ability to predict short-term market movements, and an investor in hedge funds bets on someone else’s ability to bet on the markets. No matter what, all investing boils down to betting on something or someone. How successful of an investor you are ultimately depends on 1) how often are you right on your bets? 2) how good are you at sizing your bets?


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